The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math Nate Silver's Political Calculus
References
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12345"Republican Convention: 40th Republican National Convention: Monday 27 August - Thursday 30 August 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 8, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Ron Paul Statement" (Press release). Ron Paul Campaign. Archived from the original on May 15, 2012. Retrieved May 15, 2012.
↑"Delegates, real and projected". Democratic Convention Watch. February 8, 2012. Archived from the original on February 21, 2012. Retrieved February 10, 2012.
12"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: Primary Scorecard". CNN. Retrieved February 12, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Presidential Primaries 2012: Republican Hard and Soft Count Delegate Summary". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 13, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 GOP Superdelegate Endorsement List". Democratic Convention Watch. March 21, 2012. Retrieved March 21, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
12"Proceedings of the convention: Supplemental Rules"(PDF). Republican Party of Louisiana. Archived from the original(PDF) on June 16, 2012. Retrieved June 4, 2012.
↑"URGENT Primary Election Update". Republican Party of Texas. March 1, 2012. Retrieved March 1, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"MAINE G.O.P. 2012 CAUCUS INFORMATION". Maine Republican Party. January 16, 2012. Archived from the original on May 19, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
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12"National Delegate Results". Colorado Republican Party. Retrieved May 7, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
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12"MOGOP releases unofficial results of the Congressional District Conventions". Missouri Republican Party. April 21, 2012. Archived from the original on April 27, 2012. Retrieved April 23, 2012.
↑"2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Minnesota". The Green Papers. May 20, 2012. Retrieved April 16, 2012.
12Mistler, Steve (May 7, 2012). "Ron Paul in Maine: Delegates in hand, but trouble afoot?". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved May 7, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
12Good, Chris (May 19, 2012). "Ron Paul Wins Minnesota State Convention". ABC News. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Election 2012: Washington Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. March 3, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Washington Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
↑"Romney wins majority of Mo. presidential delegates". KWMU. June 2, 2012. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
↑Mannies, Jo (June 2, 2012). "Romney allies outmuscle Paul forces at Missouri Republican Party convention". St. Louis Beacon.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Doré, Jason (June 2, 2012). "Louisiana Republicans Elect National Convention Delegates" (Press release). Retrieved September 8, 2024– via Facebook.{{cite press release}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Ohlemacher, Stephen (August 22, 2012). "Paul adds delegates in Louisiana compromise". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Washington. Associated Press. Archived from the original on August 23, 2012.
Hall, Kevin (June 16, 2012). "Ron Paul Backers Continue to Dominate Iowa's National Delegate Slate". Archived from the original on June 19, 2012.
"Ron Paul wins 21 of 25 delegates elected in Iowa". Fox News. June 16, 2016. Archived from the original on November 15, 2012. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
Robinson, Craig (May 5, 2012). "Ron Paul Dominates At-Large Delegate Slate". The Iowa Republican. Archived from the original on July 9, 2012.
Jacobs, Jennifer (May 2, 2012). "Ron Paul backers dominate Iowa GOP nominees for national convention". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 8, 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Nebraska Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
↑"Gov. Buddy Roemer Goes Independent". Buddy Roemer for President. February 22, 2012. Archived from the original on August 11, 2012. Retrieved February 22, 2012.
↑"Huntsmans delegates are now Superdelegates". Archived from the original on April 16, 2012. Retrieved June 6, 2012.
↑In this official source there are mistakes in calculations - instead of total votes amount 121,503 should be 121,501 (calculation based on precincts total votes summary): "Iowa GOP Certified Iowa Caucus Presidential Preference Vote Totals". Retrieved February 11, 2012.
↑"New Hampshire Secretary of State 2012 Presidential Primary Election Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved March 29, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"New Hampshire Secretary of State 2012 Presidential Primary delegate list"(PDF). New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original(PDF) on May 10, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
↑"Republican Presidential Write-Ins"(PDF). New Hampshire Secretary of State. 2012. Archived from the original(PDF) on March 4, 2016.
↑"South Carolina State Election Commission 2012 Presidential Preference Primary Results". SOE Software. Retrieved February 11, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 South Carolina Primary Tracker". Fox News. Archived from the original on February 29, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
↑"Florida Department of State 2012 Presidential Preference Primary Returns". Florida Department of State, Division of Elections. Retrieved February 21, 2012.This is searchable through the drop-down menus on the left of the page.
↑"Voter Registration Statistics: Active Voters by County and Party". Secretary of State of Nevada. February 2012. Retrieved February 2, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Damon, Anjeanette (May 6, 2012). "Ron Paul supporters capture majority of Nevada's national delegates". Las Vegas Sun. Retrieved May 6, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Colorado Republican Party Announces Certified 2012 Caucus Results" (Press release). Retrieved February 11, 2012.{{cite press release}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Bartels, Lynn (April 14, 2012). "Colorado Republicans split delegate votes between Romney, unified Paul and Santorum supporters". Denver Post. Retrieved April 17, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Romney Lost Colorado Caucuses, but Gets Most Delegates". CBS News Colorado. April 14, 2012.
↑Mullen, Thomas (April 15, 2012). "Colorado further evidence Ron Paul will challenge Romney in Tampa". Washington Times. Retrieved April 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Minnesota Secretary of State 2012 Republican Preference Ballot For President Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved February 21, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Paul supporters chosen as delegates in three congressional districts". Pierce County Herald. April 15, 2012. Archived from the original on April 19, 2012. Retrieved April 17, 2012.
↑"Rep. Paul supporters elected to half of Minnesota GOP convention delegation". Pierce County Herald. April 22, 2012. Archived from the original on April 25, 2012. Retrieved April 22, 2012.
↑"Official Election Returns | State of Missouri Presidential Preference Primary - Presidential Preference Primary". Missouri Secretary of State. February 22, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Maine Republican Party Releases Presidential Preference Updated Results"(PDF). Maine Republican Party. February 24, 2012. Archived from the original(PDF) on March 24, 2012. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
↑"State Of Arizona Official Canvass"(PDF). Secretary of State of Arizona. Archived from the original(PDF) on December 19, 2014. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
↑"2012 Official Michigan Presidential Primary Election Results - President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position". Michigan Secretary of State. Archived from the original on May 2, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012. The State of Michigan has raw large files viewable on their website for this primary. Part 1, Part 2.
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Michigan". CNN. March 1, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Michigan Primary". Fox News. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 straw poll results | Wyoming GOPWyoming GOP". Wygop.org. February 29, 2012. Archived from the original on May 4, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Washington". CNN. May 24, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Washington Caucues". Fox News. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
12"A Look at Super Tuesday". DemocraticConventionWatch.com. March 5, 2012. Archived from the original on November 10, 2013. Retrieved March 6, 2012.
↑"Super Tuesday Delegate Count". DemocraticConventionWatch.com. March 7, 2012. Retrieved March 7, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Super Tuesday". CNN. May 11, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Election 2012: Alaska Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. March 6, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Demer, Lisa (April 30, 2012). "Ron Paul's supporters stir up Alaska GOP convention". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on May 1, 2012. Retrieved April 30, 2012.
↑Official Results of the Tuesday, March 06, 2012 Presidential Preference Primary Election(PDF) (Report). Georgia Secretary of State. March 14, 2012. Retrieved September 9, 2024.{{cite report}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Georgia". CNN. March 23, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Georgia Primary". Fox News. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Idaho GOP Primary Results". Tea Party Cheer. Archived from the original on March 14, 2012. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
↑"Caucus Results | Idaho GOPIdaho GOP". Idaho Republican Party. Archived from the original on July 20, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Massachusetts". CNN. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Massachusetts Primary". Fox News. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"NDGOP Presidential Caucus Information". North Dakota Republican Party. Retrieved May 7, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: North Dakota". CNN. March 8, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 North Dakota Caucuses". Fox News. October 1, 2006. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Election 2012: Ohio Republican Primary". The New York Times. March 8, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) A spreadsheet of the results can be downloaded directly from the Ohio Secretary of Statewebsite.
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Ohio". CNN. May 11, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Ohio Primary". Fox News. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"State of Oklahoma Presidential Results by Congressional District (2012 Primary)". Oklahoma State Election Board. May 23, 2012. Retrieved April 6, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Oklahoma". CNN. March 8, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Oklahoma Primary". Fox News. Archived from the original on June 1, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
↑State of Tennessee - March 6, 2012 - Republican Primary(PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. March 29, 2012. Archived from the original(PDF) on April 18, 2012.
↑"Election 2012: Tennessee Republican Primary". The New York Times. March 8, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Tennessee". CNN. March 29, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Tennessee Primary". Fox News. 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"State of Vermont Official State Website: 2012 President Republican Primary". Secretary of State of Vermont. 2012. Retrieved September 9, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Election 2012: Vermont Republican Primary". The New York Times.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Vermont". CNN. March 8, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Vermont Primary". Fox News. October 1, 2006. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"March 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Official Results". Virginia State Board of Elections. Archived from the original on May 3, 2015. Retrieved May 3, 2015.
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Virginia". CNN. March 8, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Virginia Primary". Fox News. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Election 2012: Kansas Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. March 10, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Kansas GOP Caucuses". Los Angeles Times. March 10, 2012. Retrieved September 9, 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Kansas Caucuses". Fox News. March 10, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Guam Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
↑Belmont, Jon (March 10, 2012). Romney Wins Votes in Guam, Northern Marianas (News broadcast). AP News. Retrieved July 19, 2012– via YouTube.
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Guam". CNN. July 30, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Northern Marianas Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
↑Schoenbohm, Herb (March 10, 2012). "VI GOP 2012 Caucus Results After Ballot Verification of Challenged Ballots (Unofficial)". Republican Party of the Virgin Islands. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Armistead, Bill (March 23, 2012). "Letter to Secretary of State Beth Chapman in re: Certified 2012 Republican Primary Results"(PDF). Secretary of State of Alabama. Archived from the original(PDF) on September 11, 2012. Retrieved May 24, 2012.
↑"It's All Politics: AP Results: Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii". NPR. March 13, 2012. Retrieved September 9, 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"People Choice 2012: Election Center - Results: Alabama". CNN. April 23, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
12"Republican Caucus results Hawaiï"(PDF). Archived from the original(PDF) on November 6, 2012. Retrieved March 30, 2012.
↑"Hawaii - Pres Delegate Allocation - State Summary". C-SPAN. March 18, 2012 – via AP News.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: Hawaiii". CNN. March 13, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Nosef, Joe (March 29, 2012). Letter to Delbert Hosemann in re: Republican Certification of Mississippi 2012 Primary(PDF) (Report). Mississippi Republican Party.
↑"American Samoa Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
↑Elliott, Philip; DeMillo, Andrew; Hunt, Kasie; Fox, Ben (March 20, 2012). "Romney wins Puerto Rico Republican primary". Associated Press– via RealClearPolitics.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Ballots Cast: General Primary 3/20/2012". Illinois State Board of Elections. March 20, 2012. Archived from the original on November 15, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
↑"Election 2012: Illinois Republican Primary". The New York Times. March 22, 2012. Retrieved September 9, 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: Results - Illinois". CNN. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Election 2012: Louisiana Republican Primary". The New York Times. March 25, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) Results can also be downloaded directly via the Secretary of State of Louisianawebsite.
↑"2012 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. May 2, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"2012 Presidential Primary Election Candidates". Maryland State Board of Elections. April 18, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
"Election 2012: District of Columbia Republican Primary". The New York Times. April 4, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Candidates to Appear on the Ballot for the April 3, 2012 Primary Election" (Press release). March 9, 2012.{{cite press release}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"G.A.B. Canvass Reporting System: Canvass Resilts for 2012 Presidential Preference and Spring Election 04/03/2012"(PDF). May 18, 2012. Archived from the original(PDF) on March 15, 2016. Retrieved June 10, 2012.
↑"Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary"(PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. April 24, 2012. Archived from the original(PDF) on September 29, 2012. Retrieved April 29, 2012.
↑"Election 2012: Delaware Republican Primary Results". The New York Times. April 24, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) The results can also be viewed via the Delaware Board of Elections website.
↑"Election 2012: New York Republican Primary Results". The New York Times. April 25, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) The results are also viewable directly from the New York State Board of Electionswebsite.
↑"2012 Presidential preference Primary: Republican Presidential Candidate". Secretary of State of Rhode Island. May 16, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑Tilove, Jonathan (April 28, 2012). "Ron Paul supporters dominate Louisiana's Republican presidential caucuses". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. Archived from the original on April 29, 2012. Retrieved April 29, 2012.
↑"Election 2012: Indiana Republican Primary Results". The New York Times. May 9, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) The results can be viewed on the Secretary of State of Indianawebsite using the drop down menu navigation at the top.
↑"Primary Election May 8, 2012 - Official Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. June 13, 2012. Retrieved September 8, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Election 2012: West Virginia Republican Primary Results". The New York Times. May 9, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) The results can be downloaded directly from the Secretary of State of West Virginiawebsite.
↑Gale, John. "Official Report of the Board of Canvassers of the State of Nebraska"(PDF). Secretary of State of Nebraska. Archived(PDF) from the original on November 8, 2018. Retrieved August 14, 2012.
↑Grimes, Alison Lundergan (May 22, 2012). "Official 2012 Primary Election Results"(PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky, Secretary of State.
↑"Race Summary Report: 2012 Republican Party PrimaryElection". Secretary of State of Texas. May 29, 2012. If the report for 2012 is not showing, it can be found by navigating the drop down menus at the Historical Election Results page.
↑Bowen, Debra. "Statement of Vote: June 5, 2012, Presidential Primary Election"(PDF). Secretary of State of California. pp.13, 57–69. Archived from the original(PDF) on October 18, 2012. Retrieved January 24, 2013.
↑"Election 2012: Montana Republican Primary". The New York Times. June 6, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
↑"Official List | Candidates for President For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/05/2012 Election"(PDF). New Jersey Elections. July 23, 2012. Archived from the original(PDF) on October 10, 2012.
↑"Canvas of Returns Primary Election Held on June 5, 2012"(PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico. 2012. pp.6–10. Archived from the original on July 10, 2012. The State of New Mexico 2012 Primary Election results can be viewed by breakdown here.