The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.[1] This was the sixth consecutive time that a Republican was elected governor of Mississippi.
Primary elections were held on August 8.[2] Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.
The race was considered to be competitive, with Reeves moderately favored. Despite Reeves winning re-election, this was the worst performance for a winning Republican, the best for a losing Democrat, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican,[3] and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.
According to Split Ticket estimates, Reeves won 76% of White voters while Presley won 96% of Black voters in the state.[4]
Background
This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999.
This structure was referred to as Mississippi's version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well.[5] Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held.[6]
Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state.[7][8]
Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised.[9]
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